OK, finally got some time 33,993 feet in the air en route to Vegas to share with you my notes from the first half of the ANA TV Forum. I had to duck after lunch for a taping at CBS on Viral Videos (which if you think about it, is sublime)
My topline post is here and the rest of my notes are in the extended post including: Bob Liodice, TV Panel, co-chair commentary, Ian Beavis and Interactive Poll Questions...
Segment 1: Bob Liodice speaks
[To be honest, you’re better off going to Bob’s Blog and reading his great series on Reinventing Marketing]
Liodice is speaking…talking about “rapid, fundamental change”
Marketing beliefs from the past: “Marketing is what you do when your product is no good” Kodak CMO
Wanamaker reference on 50% of my advertising being wasted
Jim Garrity (Wachovia) and Jim Zambito (J&J), Kip Knight (eBay) are all pretty united about “ROI or bust”
All about technology: Implications for marketers are profound; technology has shaken the foundations of marketing. How?
1) put consumer in control
a. TiVo, Do Not Call, Ad Block on Web, Satellite Radio
2) Media landscape
a. New media alternatives
i. Podcasting, blogging
ii. VOD, Addressable advertising
3) Brand building
a. Brand loyalty that was once considered givens is not being challenged by consumers
4) Measurement platform
Couple this with tighter corporate governance…it’s no wonder that CMO tenure is 23 months i.e. shorter window to prove success
Conclusion: Marketing is being reinvented (continuously)
CEO expectation: higher revenue, profits, leading to greater shareholder value (strong enduring brands)
CMO Challenge: Continuously reinvent total communications process
Reinventing the total communications process
1) Brand Building
2) Integrated Marketing Communications
3) Accountability
4) Marketing Organization
TV Advertising
- TV delivers the numbers
- TV is undergoing its own reinvention
- Convergence with Internet
- Addressable TV
- Enhanced TV
- Improved program quality
Challenges
- Prime time price/value
- Impact of splintering audiences, DVR’s
- Etc
Segment 2: Co-chairs Kaki Hinton from Pfizer and Perianne Grignon from Sears
TV is alive and well…and living large (Kaki Hinton – Pfizer)
Americans watching more TV than ever before
Perianne Grignon – Sears:
- Time spent – Web 17%; 51% TV
- Dollars spent: $95BN – 2005 versus $34BN – 1995
Ave number of channels à 96.4 2005
Pfizer Data à Sudacare à shows pretty conclusive pop from TV, but I have 1000 questions to add to this oversimplified analysis, such as:
- This demonstration is for a new product launch, so the base is essentially negligible/flat
- What about the impact of other media in the launch mix? Which overperformed and which underperformed? Do you know?
- What primary demographic was being targeted for Sudacare, and is this demographic typical of the majority of your brands/marketshare?
- What about your other products? In particular, the ones in some kind of sustain mode/holding pattern?
- What about the dogs?
So both are waxing lyrically about how great TV is and how it’s working for them. Which is terrific I guess, but seems a little void of reality. Where’s the healthy skepticism? Where’s the challenge to networks to provide greater value? Where’s the continuous striving towards being more efficient and effective
Segment 3: Survey of attendees (using voting devices)
[I’m summarizing all the questions in this segment, with appropriate commentary. Note that several questions were asked to advertisers/agencies only i.e. those with skin in the game. ]
Q. Do you own a DVR?
58% YES
42% NO
Implication: Unbelievable. This number should be 110% (i.e. 2+ boxes in homes; home + work)
Q. Do you own and subscribe to HDTV?
41% YES
59% NO
Implication: I was surprised it was this high
Q. TV Spending for 2006/2007 season
31% spend more
32% spend less
32% spend the same
5% not sure
Implication: no clue (not me….)
Q. Are DVR’s a threat?
63% DVR’s are a threat
24% Not a threat
13% Not sure
Implication: Whilst 2/3rd’s supports Forrester research, how is it possible that 1 in every 4 buyers are under the illusion that time/place shifting will not undermine the very fiber and fabric of their existence?
Q. Will you increase/decrease your TV spend 2 years from now
12% Increase
24% Same
25% Decrease by no more than 20%
9% Decrease 20% or more
30% No Idea
Implication: So 34% of 1 in every 3 are essentially looking at double-digit decreases within a very small window of time. On the flipside, another 1/3rd really have no clue, which is equally scary.
Q What is the most promising form of video?
31% Interactive TV
22% regular TV
21% Internet video
9% Mobile
16% Cable VOD
Implication: Not really sure. Shows the fragmentation on one hand, but also shows the democratization of video (and thus, “TV”)
Q. What is the biggest threat to TV
48% say too much clutter
17% DVR’s
Implication: I missed this question, but caught the highlights from a helpful conference neighbor. My question to you all is what we can do – as an industry – to combat the clutter challenge, without necessarily sacrificing craploads of revenue in the process? Or is that the very point…hello clean up clutter; bye bye revenue
Q. Should the upfront include cinema, online and other media?
59% NO
37% YES
Implication: Status Quo Central – still all about TV. Period. Secret Society.
Q. Should Upfront move to a calendar year?
83% YES
17% NO
Implication: So if the buyers overwhelmingly want the upfront moved, why the $&%^$#@ doesn’t it get moved?
Segment 4: Josh Bernoff (Forrester) – TV Panel
Growth spurt expect in terms of DVR households
- more than 10MM households with DVR capability (TiVo, Cable companies)
- growth in DVR household base is going to hit rapid pace
- 2010: 43MM households – 40% of US pop. with DVR’s in home (in line with agencies, independent research companies)
Survey of national advertisers (133 national advertisers - $20BN spending)
- 78% said they felt that TV has become less effective in the last 2 years versus 3% who felt it has become more effect
- 70% believed DVR’s will reduce/destroy effectiveness of TV advertising (has choice of “it’s evolving” i.e. cop out choice)
- When DVR’s reach 30 MM homes (within 3 years)
- 60% said would reduce spending
- 1 in 4 said reduction would be more than 25%
- 60% said would reduce spending
- Spending on display/search ads online broke $10 million
- Of those reducing TV spend, 80% said they would spend more on Internet advertising
- 45% said they would spend more on video on Web (not sure if this is a subset of the 80%, but think so)
- Of those reducing TV spend, 80% said they would spend more on Internet advertising
- ABC News in NY Times – mobile, mouse, ipod, TV - I would call this interconsumptability
AGAIN: This is all about content….not necessarily about advertising
Poltrack – in this new non-linear world, we’re not selling time anymore; we do joint deals/partnerships; cross platform; integration; Web + TV
- “Search is Direct Marketing”
- limitations on Search; cannot continue to grow; will run out of things to search
- where internet is going is about streaming video
- NCAA – 14MM downloads of streamed video; 4MM unique users; 268K live simultaneous streams
- Courtyard and Dell: major sponsors; “worked very well for them” – hmmm
- CSI – call to Web – 1MM people went to Web (Hummer)
- Internet is great advantage for us and we’re working to build our Internet presence
Hype versus reality
- 1.8 million sales of video ipods (allegedly?)
- 12MM downloads to date of Desperate Housewives etc.
- CBS introduced the Units – 20MM people watched…?
How much time are your devoting to media strategy that will become significant in 2010? How much are you devoting to media opportunities THIS fall?
- he’s saying stop looking into the future and start buying now!
Interactive questions (advertisers; agencies)
Berkoff (Audi)
[Disclosure: I drive an Audi and therefore think Stephen Berkoff and Audi both rock]
· Surprised with fear in the room…
· Return to “what it means to be a network brand” – what does it mean to be NBC?
· “Brands must lead the evolution of TV”
Art of the Heist
· Compact luxury; fuel efficient; “what’s next” group (not target) which is a group turned off to traditional advertising
· We have a whole palette of individual medium
· Car sales over delivered against expectations
We’ve become a little incestuous and forgotten who we are?
Will the Audi be featured in the Heist TV program?
Hedleston (Amex)
- Red Herring: decline of 30-second spot isn’t technology based, but rather behavior based
o Engagement (first mention at 9.53am)
- Changed terminology: Instead of TV, we call it “rolling video stock” (underneath that is cinema, VOD, Podcasting, commercial TV)
- From sequencing perspective, we try and capture most valuable channels first (cinema, opt in channels), then come in with mass media and sweep up rest of impressions
- Can’t be cookie cutter anymore (need to concentrate on creative; customer and how they want to receive the message; living in the moment; lot of opportunity to take advantage of)
- M Night Shymalan (rolling video stock)
o 2 minutes; Behind the scenes piece
o I asked the question: was he a customer? He was a customer – before coming aboard… (card member; believed in brand and brand campaign)
§ Involved in media (didn’t believe in cinema advertising)
Vince Messina (Yahoo!)
- does your media plan map to web consumption?
- Realignment of dollars to consumption
- Video is one part of that
o Video advertising online 1/10th of all brand advertising
- We’re striving to provide more video opportunities
Segment 5: Ian Beavis
The Future is already here. It’s just not evenly distributed
Hunter S. Thompson quote: The TV business is uglier than most things - It is normally perceived as some kind of cruel and shallow money trench through the heart of the journalism industry, a long plastic hallway where thieves and pimps run free and good men die like dogs, for no good reason
I love TV (wherever it is); doesn’t have to be in my living room
Shows an amazing slide for automotive category which shows that time spent versus ad spend is negative (ad > time) for TV, versus ridiculously and exponentially positive for Web (ad < time)
Watch everybody…everybody’s a competitor
Advise to Networks, Agencies and Marketers (views are not just mine…but the C suite!)
Networks:
- stop boasting about your rate increases…in light of audience declines (suddenly puts the CFO in the room, and that’s not good for you – quintessential example is Super Bowl (strains credibility)
- Measure commercial breaks
- Don’t bait and switch
- Prove viewers watch time-shifted ads
o I don’t finish my website with .org
o …and we’ll pay for them
- Move beyond the box, fast
o Consumer will pay for content…and they will pay for ads (if they’re good)
- Provide multiple platform options
- Change the upfront to conform with client’s needs
o Straddles financial years
- Provide varying commercial lengths
Advertisers
- Walk the talk (stop bitching and moaning and start doing it)
- Do what is right for your brand
o Don’t be fearful, be fearless
- There are no “must” buys
o There are lots of options out there
- Provide engaging advertising
o There’s a lot of rubbish out there…
- Integrate your operations
o Doesn’t matter where it starts as long as it starts…
§ …and it starts with the client
Agencies
- Have a real 360 degree perspective
- Integrate Departments
- Remember you work for the client not the network
- Think about content
- Balance quantitative and qualitative
o ROI reality check
o Research is an aid to judgment, not a crutch
§ P.S. Consumers lie
- Get off the 30-second drug
We’re all in this together
Experimentation – how do you justify spending with limited/no metrics
- due diligence
- 80:20 rule – get as far as you can with what you know and then take a leap
- BUT many of these approaches are not necessarily expensive
