Time-shifting away from the 30-second spot

USA Today gives an update on time-shifting behavior and while, the spin seems to be on how DVR's are adding viewers to overall audience numbers (hooray, reach), I can't help but wonder if the networks really think their buying clients (agencies, marketers) are that dumb.

In the case of The Office for example, DVR time-shifting adds as much as 22% viewership:

-The Office (NBC)
DVR viewers (in millions): 2.41
Total viewers (in millions): 10.8
Percent DVR: 22.2%

...which is another way of saying that a minimum of 2.41 million viewers watched ZERO commercials.

Amongst the most time-shifted series from last week is Survivor China, which one might think would be more resistant or immune to time-shifting. Not so.

-Survivor: China (CBS)
DVR viewers (in millions): 2.24
Total viewers (in millions): 15.1
Percent DVR: 14.8%

DVR homes make up 20% of Nielsen's sample, which doesn't exactly explain how some shows have time shifting audiences over 20% (VCR's?), but what is interesting is that a significant percentage of these homes are making full use of their time-shifting ability/capability.

The new figures "are very reassuring for us," says CBS research chief David Poltrack, by reducing year-to-year viewership declines from 7% to a "more manageable" 4% for the Big 4 networks.

It's a catch-22 to be sure, which surely puts a lot more pressure on in-program monetization e.g. branded entertainment in order to extract incremental value from "more manageable" audience loss.

Sounds like a lose-lose situation to me. More measurement and more audience = declining ad revenue?