January 31, 2008Displacebook
Filed Under: From the "I told you so" files
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In the spirit of my continued quest to drive home the following point to marketers, "Facebook is not the silver bullet you seek" (nor is it capable of slaying a rapid werewolf, vampire or zombie...read on), here is a tremendous source/resource which you can thank me for later.
Or rather, just thank the following blogs, which provided the breadcrumbs that took me to this gingerbread house: here, here, here, here, and ultimately here.
The gist of the thread is simple, Facebook apps are declining in popularity. The questions are two-fold: is this (already) evidence of Facebook fatigue and/or to what extent is this trend direction permanent versus some kind of a "correction"
For what it's worth, I've had a number of conversation with blue chip marketers who have seemingly and giddily dived head first into Facebook as a cure-all "non-traditional" investment - one in the financial services sector and another in the family entertainment/event (whatever that means) space. In both cases, they've veered away from pursuing a more stable and deeper conversational strategy path in favor of "wild short-term success" (my words, not theirs). I wonder to what extent this is focused on Facebook apps, in which case they might want to think about reconsidering their eggs-in-one-basket position.
As the chart below demonstrates, the top 10 apps on Facebook have all declined or slowed down quite significantly from their peaks to present day.
| Peak | Today | ||
| Funwall | 5800 | 2500 | |
| Superwall | 4800 | 1800 | |
| Top Friends | 2900 | 2200 | |
| Likeness | 821 | 181 | |
| Super poke | 1500 | 500 | |
| Movies | 814 | 500 | |
| Compare People | 1000 | 471 | |
| iLike | 941 | 372 | |
| Causes | 469 | 110 | |
| Superlatives | 320 | 110 | |
| all figures in '000's |
Note of course that in many - if not most - cases, we're talking about an incredibly small window or timeframe e.g. Funwall, which has only being Bacn' through cyberspace for 5 months. That said, how many of you on Facebook that have the Funwall application (I'm assuming 90%+) are considering uninstalling it? Again, I'm assuming a large number, which would support the above assertion(s)
Anyway, check out Andonomic's Leaderboard and decide for yourself if Facebook is following MySpace, which in turn is following Yahoo!'s lead off the board so to speak.
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Comments
I hate using this term, but I almost feel as if these Facebook apps have "jumped the shark." The apps are getting out of control, too -- especially the ones that force you to invite in order to implement. I generally just trash the whole thing if I get to that screen.
I use my Facebook as a hybrid of personal and business connections and while I might be able to live with bacn'ing my personal friends I do not want to do anything unintentionally put off my business contacts. I feel like trying to zombie bite (or whatever) a C-level exec that I respect would be vastly disrespectful.
As an aside, I am proud to say that in my time on Facebook, I have never poked, superpoked, vampire attacked, funwalled, super funwalled, or instituted a popularity contest among my friends. I've always seen those apps more for the teen set more than the business set and have aptly ignored them when I've received invites.
Truthfully, I'm fairly new to FB -- maybe a few months? Perhaps its a new generation of users more thoughtfully choosing their apps who are influencing the masses and subsequent app recession. Or maybe it's because Twitter is starting to really boom and more people rely on that as a real-time networking tool versus Facebook's stagnant-by-comparison nature.
Wow, sorry for the diatribe. :)
Posted by: Jennifer Leggio
I think we can look at the results in a more user experience way. We can all pretty much agree that, to some degree or another, new media users are experimenters. As the apps were first developed, EVERYONE was using different ones, tossing back and forth invites, biting people and killing werewolves and what not, and now they are paring back as they figure out which ones actually are *useful* for their facebook. Which ones are useful, well put together and well thought out.
Also take into consideration the surge of new non-college and high school based users that were introduced to facebook at roughly the same time the 3rd party apps were being brought into use.
I know recently I went through and uninstalled at least half of the apps I had on my profile and left the ones I found useful for myself or my friends.
Posted by: Kevin Wolfe
The proliferation of these silly apps on Facebook sealed the deal for its reputation among boomer-fringe users as yet another "teenybopper" site, and their demise can't come too soon for the health of Facebook. Don't look now, but the early adapters ain't getting any younger, and we may as well contemplate a Facebook that hangs around till the generation that "gets it" is as old as the one that currently doesn't.
Posted by: Rick Wolff
I think Facebook gave many of these apps exposure at first, but as soon as iGoogle, widgetbox, etc all started offering spots to add such applications, facebook's share of users got cut down. Now all these portals are starting to look the same, especially blogs and facebook profiles. It would actually be a pretty unique experiment to see just how close a person could get their blog to look like facebook.
And to the point of advertiser involvement, it is definitely not a silver bullet. Looking at viral campaigns like elfyourself.com, those are one in a thousand. Sometimes an innovative ideas will cause the social entity to catch on, but sometimes (in my opinion) it's just luck and timing.
Posted by: Len Kendall
I have to agree with Rick on the perception that it is quickly becoming another "teenybopper" site is definitely out there, even here in Singapore.
This really is a shame given the apps that really do help with social media like Twitter and Feedheads. I too have recently gotten rid of many apps that I don't find too useful.
Posted by: Daryl Tay
I have been a member of Facebook since it first became available at my college. Oops, I'm giving away my age. With that said, I've never truly bought into all the new applications that have been added -- had a feeling it would be a fad or sorts. I get so many updates from friends about join this group/adding widget/application that I tend to block out ones that could be useful. I mean really...Do I really need a Superwall?
Posted by: Allison
Joseph, I have to take exception with your analysis of the figures above, because they don't even slightly suggest Facebook Apps as a genre are getting less popular. What it suggests to me is that old applications are being superceded by new ones. Facebook the destination continues to rise, but I'm guessing the content people pass around virally continues to change.
This would be like showing a graph of The Evolution of Dance on YouTube, and saying "not nearly as many people watch it today as when it first rose to fame, so that proves viral video is on the wane". Clearly not true.
Smart marketing programs that continue to have relevance and evolve will always find resonance amongst information seekers. Facebook apps can be part of that strategy.
Or was this one of those posts where you linkbait by attracting those who love to say 'I told you so"?
Posted by: Steve Coulson
Ironic post from a guy who just last night installed the "You're the Coolest" application...
Posted by: Scott Monty
@scottmonty, yeah but it's true, so how could I ignore it (play to Jaffe's ego works every time)
@stevecoulson, whilst I agree with you that old apps will make way for new apps - especially more relevant one etc., the point about my post is to ask the question about fatigue/burnout, esp. after such a small window.
There's a LOT of "apps" competing for a finite amount of attention and web page real estate...most of it isn't even good (sound like another scenarios you know involving 30-second spots?).
I guess my concern is that marketers are looking at FB (which itself is practically devoid of a business plan) as a silver bullet.
And no, this in no way is a link baiting exercise. I'm way too dumb for that.
Posted by: Joseph Jaffe
microsoft values facebook at $15bn and yahoo at $22bn.
The question for me is where lies the greater value, in the people who point, or the pointing?
Posted by: David Cushman
Another thought. Widgets (which is what facebook apps are)are likely to behave in a far more evolutionary way than websites. They have to adapt to survive, they have great waves of amplification, and equally scary waves of destruction. They are viral.
If an app can adapt to its users need and grow with them over time, it'll survive... I guess
Posted by: David Cushman
I don't think that FB apps are perceived as a silver bullet by marketers. FB does not charge to issue apps so marketers only pay for the cost of development. This could be worth it for awareness alone in some cases. For example, Trip Advisor has the Where I've visited map with links to sign up for membership or join your FB and Trip Advisor maps together. What's to say that having Trip Advisor top of mind whenever I login to my page isn't worth it. Any marketer would see this as a chance to experiment in the social media space and depending on how relevant their app is, stay viral over time.
As for the Super Poke, Happy Hour, Top Friends, ILike etc, The same people are adding these "teeneybooper" apps no matter what their age is. I personally cannot stand these ridiculous applications and hate the way they take over your page.
All this being said... Joe, I think you are my friend with THE MOST apps. :) To each his own...
Posted by: Sarah Stoesser
@sarah - I too am experimenting, although I must admit 90%+ are unused
Posted by: Joseph Jaffe
Perhaps the goal of a FB app should not be ongoing usage, rather we should expect them to be disposable and we should take that into consideration as we develop ideas and executions.
Posted by: Mark Redetzke
Facebook, like ICQ, MSN and many other virtual tools, is definately slipping in the popularity it once had. Like every other college kid who fell into the craze and became fb friends with everyone and anyone they had ever met before, the novelty is beginning to wear off. I think the decline in the excitment that once came with fb is from its overexposure. Being a part of something that all your friends have, your friends parents have, your hometown dentist and more, it's just too much.
Also, adding applications has made it impossible to even find the space to post a message...it is enough to make someone already irritated with the program want to quit.
What I want to know is, what's next? Whatever it is will have all the anti-facebookers going crazy, until everyone ends up switching to it, making it the next addiction. Or, is it even possible to leave the world of facebook? With the majority of people having it, photos of you being posted with or without your knowledge, events being created,etc. how can the next
best thing compete with that, without being overused and overexposed?
Posted by: Tina L
This from the guy who has his Twitter feed tied into his Facebook "Status Update" and Twitters so frequently that I most always know what Joe's had for breakfast or how long his flight's been delayed ;)
Seriously though, I think the problem with the Facebook Apps is, as many have mentioned, that they're poorly designed and very UN-user friendly, in that they require to to spam (bacn) all your friends every time you use them and even worse-- are designed so that you unwittingly spam your entire address book the first several times.
I mean seriously Jaffe- who wants to use an application that tricks them?
Disagree totally about FB being a teeny-bopper device. It's never going to replace LinkedIn for serious networking (because people you do business with don't give a damn about what music you listen to, and it's impossible, as Plaxo Pulse is finding out, to successfully separate your business friends from your work friends.) But as I was saying, it's definitely catching on more and more with the over-30 crew, who love the silly time-waste apps like movie quizzes and whatnot and the ability to post goofy YouTube videos for their friends. They don't use it the same way as college kids- not enough time-- but they are using it.
Steve C. is right that newer and better apps are on the way- people will learn from the mistakes of this generation of apps- things like Scrabulous are wildly popular, legal issues notwithstanding.
Not sure how anyone is going to actually make any money off of these FB apps, but that's their problem, not mine :)
Posted by: Toad
I think some users joined not realizing what facebook is. Perhaps these users thought facebook was about graffiti, zombies and finding out which Disney princess you are. With all the requests sent on a daily basis, it would be hard not to if you were new to the game. But, as these users became more aware of the online environment they uninstalled them, which explains the decrease of application use.
I have been a user for nearly two years and have avoided applications like superwall and werewolf. I’m not anti-applications though, but I think my friends (and I) should be able to gain something from them. Applications such as Books iRead and Toronto Favs allow my friends to see the books I’m currently into, or what restaurant I’m enjoying in the city. And vice versa for my friend’s applications.
I think marketers need to take advantage of applications that add value to a user’s experience and avoid superpoking them.
Posted by: Kathryn S.
Facebook applications seem to be on the decline. In terms of using them as a marketing tool, I think that the craze is definitely on the way out. I won't argue that I do enjoy some applications myself; there is some fun in receiving a mistletoe martini via booze mail during the holidays. However, like any other online marketing tool, too much simply loses its lustre. At this point in the game, it might be too late for marketers to jump on the facebook applications bandwagon.
Posted by: Meg
Joe,
I find most of the apps merely a diversion but I plan to keep my Facebook presence, as it has proved beneficial in reaching out to others who I might otherwise not find through networking. Is it a super-duper business tool? Probably not.
I agree with Toad: I use LinkedIn and Pulse for as my firstline business online networking sites. But Facebook requires very little of my time, gives both my business and my book additional presence and offers an additional outlook for my blog. All good things.
Posted by: Lewis Green
