Jaffe Juice

Displacebook

In the spirit of my continued quest to drive home the following point to marketers, "Facebook is not the silver bullet you seek" (nor is it capable of slaying a rapid werewolf, vampire or zombie...read on), here is a tremendous source/resource which you can thank me for later.

Or rather, just thank the following blogs, which provided the breadcrumbs that took me to this gingerbread house: here, here, here, here, and ultimately here.

The gist of the thread is simple, Facebook apps are declining in popularity. The questions are two-fold: is this (already) evidence of Facebook fatigue and/or to what extent is this trend direction permanent versus some kind of a "correction"

For what it's worth, I've had a number of conversation with blue chip marketers who have seemingly and giddily dived head first into Facebook as a cure-all "non-traditional" investment - one in the financial services sector and another in the family entertainment/event (whatever that means) space. In both cases, they've veered away from pursuing a more stable and deeper conversational strategy path in favor of "wild short-term success" (my words, not theirs). I wonder to what extent this is focused on Facebook apps, in which case they might want to think about reconsidering their eggs-in-one-basket position.

As the chart below demonstrates, the top 10 apps on Facebook have all declined or slowed down quite significantly from their peaks to present day.

	Peak		Today
Funwall	5800		2500
Superwall	4800		1800
Top Friends	2900		2200
Likeness	821		181
Super poke	1500		500
Movies	814		500
Compare People	1000		471
iLike	941		372
Causes	469		110
Superlatives	320		110
	all figures in '000's

Note of course that in many - if not most - cases, we're talking about an incredibly small window or timeframe e.g. Funwall, which has only being Bacn' through cyberspace for 5 months. That said, how many of you on Facebook that have the Funwall application (I'm assuming 90%+) are considering uninstalling it? Again, I'm assuming a large number, which would support the above assertion(s)

Anyway, check out Andonomic's Leaderboard and decide for yourself if Facebook is following MySpace, which in turn is following Yahoo!'s lead off the board so to speak.

94% of my advertising is wasted, the only problem is that I keep on investing in it

So I'm sure you saw BIGResearch's 11th SIMM study, which reveal some interesting factoids, including the fact that just 5.5% of people fully pay attention to TV commercials when they come on.

"Whoa," as Keanu might say.

41.2% are channel surfing, 33.5% talking to others (in the room or on the phone) and 30.2% mentally tune out.

I wonder where IM'ing, checking e-mail and other web-related activities would fall (most likely the tuning out part), together with ad-zapping/skipping/TiVo/DVR-related activities (again, most likely channel surfing)

How accurate and/or representative is this finding? Deep down in your gut you just know it is closer to the real truth than not.

Adding to the cluttered environment aside, doesn't this just become a game of math at the end of the day i.e. assessing the calculated risks and rewards of weighing a success:failure exposure and reach rate of 5.5% against the propensity and probability of making one's quarterly numbers and keeping one's job?

There's got to be a better way that is both more efficient and effective, and commensurately less risky.

And of course, there is.

So why aren't more marketers taking this route? (cue: Super Bowl music NOW)

Jaffe Juice #102 - The New Marketing Podcast that's Absolutely Scrabulous!

As always, my thanks to Deliver Magazine and USPS for their support and partnership. Audio comments to +1 206 203-3255. In this episode, Scrabulous, UNM2PNM, Quality v Quantity, Conversation Starters, Charity and the Stupid Bowl. Don't forget to join the Jaffe Juice Facebook Group.

Direct download here
iTunes subscription here

0m - Scrabulous Intro

8m - Updates on UNM2PNM - 115 requests in; 35 to go; request your review copy here

12m45 - An inaudible audio comment from a Brit. Please identify yourself :)

14m55 - A real conversation starter from Adam Broitman: 10 quality relationships or 5 million impressions? You decide

23m32 - Audio comment from long time listener, Richard Gatarski

27m - Deliver Magazine's 7th Conversation Starter on Product Innovation, R&D and Marketing's role

40m50 - Closing the book on the Month-long Celebration on Experimentation and the chosen charity

47m30 - Thoughts ahead of this year's Stupid Bowl. Have advertisers done a poor job of engaging the blogosphere?

55m30 - Playing out with David Usher's "And so we run"

Stupid bowl reflections

Let me just say off the bat that I don't begrudge brands from participating in Advertising's Spectacular Spectacular. It's one of a handful (literally one hand = 5 fingers...count 'em) of mass reach opportunities left (even American Idol is starting to suffer cold-water shrinkage)

This year, it would appear that advertisers are working harder (as they should) to "amplify, extend and enhance" their efforts (read: do whatever the hell they can to justify their investment), including a robust mobile promotion from Anheuser-Busch and a cacophony of consumer-generated/participatory efforts.

That said, it still got me to thinking (thanks to an interview I conducted over the weekend) about the real high stakes environment of "The Big Game"

• For starters, the fact we rely on YouTube (which wasn't even around 2 years ago as a Super Bowl Hail Mary) as much as we do is in of itself an indicator that advertising in the game isn't enough (anymore)
• ...which validates the point that Super Bowl advertising is all about the P.R. (Today Show Donny Deutsch mentions etc).
• Which is all well and good, except for the fact that unless you're in the top 5, you've pretty much flushed your money down the toilet. That sounds like a twisted game of Russian Roulette to me. Remember CareerBuilder and Cramer-Krasselt?
• Bonus impressions aside, let's talk about actually breaking through the clutter through the message i.e. creativity. Why is that so many advertisers no doubt will run repurposed creative as opposed to putting their entire hearts and souls into something compelling?
• ...and speaking of breaking through the clutter, there's the medium part. With half the audience divided between males and females, there's almost always 50% wastage built into the value proposition (there's your answer Mr Wanamaker).
• ...but it gets worse. Have you ever watched a Super Bowl yourselves? Of course you have and most likely you're at a party, where the noise of the crowd, coupled with the sound turned down essentially means that audio is not a factor in the package...
• ...and clearly neither is having one's full faculty in tact. It's called ALCOHOL people and most of us are inebriated enough not to remember where to purchase widget x the next day (save the efforts of 10+ commercials from Budweiser reminding us to keep on drinking throughout the game of course)

I can't help but wonder where the research is that proves the Super Bowl actually drives product i.e. sales. I don't have the time to do the analysis (if you'd like to do it, just post your findings in the comment section or e-mail me and I'll repost), but one type of litmus test is to look at the advertisers that are returning versus the newbies as an indicator of efficacy.

The last case study that existed was the dot com example, where companies ploughed up to 50% of their budgets into 1 or 2 Super Bowl commercials and to thank them for their efforts, they went out of business.

Anyway, just thought I'd provide some sobering thoughts to balance out all the pre-game viral buzz.

Again, I don't begrudge any brand from giving it a shot. It's a great platform and opportunity to hit it out the park, with emphasis on "hitting it out the park" as a necessary prerequisite.

Go Giants!

UNM2PNM Update: 105 requests and 105 reviews to come

105 requests are in with only 45 to go (request yours here). The full list is in the extended post.

I've also started this Facebook Group for participants to upload, share, update, connect etc.

 

In addition, several people who already had purchased the book are going to participate in the program. Thank you to Caroline Maerten @ Rolling Talks, Reed Smith @ Reed all about it, Mark Goren @ Transmission Marketing, Dr Mihaela Vorvoreanu @  PR Connections and Steve Dow @ Mediageek.

Quite a few of the participating bloggers have posted about the program ahead of their reviews. They include this, this, this, this, and this.

The good news is that most books are making their way (or have arrived) at their respective destinations and although it's still a little early for reviews to come in en masse (with the exception of Bob LeDrew and Lewis Green who must be speed readers), here are some from people who had already purchased the book, however still participated in the program:

• Valeria Maltoni @ Conversation Agent - REVIEW (Sentiment: positive)
• Doug Haslam @ Topaz Partners - REVIEW (Sentiment: positive - with a warning that this book is not intended/written for the epicenter of the fishbowl)
• Jeremy Brook @ Lowe/Rivet (Australia) - REVIEW (Sentiment: positive)
• Bob LeDrew's review @ Flacklife is here - REVIEW (Sentiment: positive)
• Lewis Green @ Bizsolutionsplus - REVIEW (Sentiment: positive)

Of course, the real test of this particular experiment will be to what extent 150 reviews help sell the book (or not). The assumptions (or hope) going in are that a) all participants will review the book as promised and that b) the reviews will be positive (I say that from the perspective of being the author, but also based on the initial reactions/consensus to date)

It's still to early to tell, however I have seen somewhat of a jump in sales activity within the past week, although it's a little more tricky to determine if it's because of UNM2PNM, a generous discount, my Facebook social ad or all of the above.

Of course I will keep you all updated with as many statistics as possible.

This is at the end of the day an experiment steeped in the 3 pillars of conversation: community, dialogue and partnership. In other words, this is as much your experiment as it is mine. From the UNM2PNM logo designs (this one is courtesy of Greg Smith) to people like Beth Kanter volunteering to do a book giveaway as her part in this program, it's encouraging to see people expressing themselves creatively and experimenting likewise.

I hope you will do similarly. In fact, if you've already purchased the book and would still like to review it, please contact me and I'll make sure I add you to the growing list. Please also make sure you include the Amazon.com affiliate purchase link when you post for tracking purposes (all proceeds going to charity)

Is there a new Evil Empire in town?

Hmmm....I just got back from taking the kids to a local arcade and while I was there, I bumped into Charles Marrelli, whom I haven't seen in a few years.

Then I get back to my computer and see this ad.

Coincidence?

I think not.

This says a lot about the Get Big Fast 2.0 myth

I stumbled upon this Facebook group, the "International Delete Your MySpace Account Day" group, which this year, will fall on January 30th.

The description says a lot:

Dear Myspace - Because you claim over 200 million accounts and don't report on actual active users like Facebook (60 million), we are grouping together to delete all our empty, dead, double, and never-been-used profiles on your ad filled site so that you true numbers can shine. Don't get too excited when you see a big spike in logins on Jan 30th, it is just so we can delete our dead accounts.

Do I need to say any more, except that what goes around, comes around?

The Brain Drain

It's no secret that "Talent" is - if not THE - one of THE most critical focus areas for companies in the marketing communications space right now - specifically the agencies. You're not going to attend a single conference without an entire panel being dedicated to talent or a high ranking executive talking about talent is one of the primary challenges, concerns or focus areas on his or her agenda.

ATTRACTING digital talent has become increasingly difficult for the agencies. This is a global phenomenon and is applicably pretty much across the board. In recent time, this had been worse in the mid-level range, due to a void vacated by the exodus caused by the dot com bust. Nowadays however, it's pretty pervasive in all areas of the business.

Of course this is now compounded by the fact that digital talent is not enough to cover the expanding consideration set of "colors" in the box of crayons, including - but not limited to - social media, word-of-mouth, co-creation, consumer generated content and social networking (to name a few)

And as if this wasn't enough of a conundrum, it's become glaringly apparent in the past few weeks that the agency world cannot hold on to its existing talent either - particularly in the leadership category.

This list includes my friends (know 'em and love 'em all) Denuo's Nick Pahade, OMD's Sean Finnegan, Tribal's Paran Johar, Mediavest's Adam Gerber (his new venture just raised some fresh new money) and Ogilvy's Eric Wheeler and underscores the push-pull reality of the business at the moment.

PULL: The easier of the two forces. Digital industry "vets" or old-timers want new challenges. They also want to cash-in or cash-out and who can blame 'em. They've worked too hard, been paid too little only to see 25-year old millionaires created at times overnight. The lure of start-ups in the technology and social media/networking space is just too great at the moment. They are well-funded and can offer the one thing that agencies cannot - EQUITY (substantial). They desperately need to figure out how to court, woo and win over both Madison Avenue and the brand marketers. First of course, they need to figure out their business models...and who better than to work with those who acted as purse string arbiters.

PUSH: As per the earlier point, agencies are infamous for overworking and underpaying. That however, is probably a bit outdated in terms of current applicability. Agencies have lost the spark that once had employees willingly staying until witching hour. Today people work late under duress...if at all. And it really doesn't matter how much money is being thrown at execs....because the VC world can come up with more.

Perhaps the more important PUSH point is the ephemeral one that is associated with being respected, trusted and empowered to effect change and innovation. Commitment to digital is either still superficial and/or not bought into across the board. Perhaps Carat's experiment will buck this trend i.e. promoting digital stars to the ultimate leadership position and helping infuse digital commitment across the cultural board. Carat does need to score a big win to prove this new working model (they recently lost a large auto client) and I'm crossing fingers for Scott Sorokin and Sarah Fay (and indirectly David Verklin) who are both great, talented stars.

It's a 1-2 punch of ATTRACTING and RETAINING talent that could conceivably become a knock-out punch that causes the kind of tipping point that will revolutionize and restructure the agency world and its importance and role with brand marketers.

Until then, I would caution brand marketers at the moment to really do their due diligence when it comes to partnering with an agency that needs to demonstrate acute digital and social media strategic leadership. The market is filling up with too many Houses of Cards.

The Hummy Tail

Forget The Long Tail. The same for the Fuzzy Tail. Instead, might I introduce you to The Hummy Tail.

Proving once again, how content is immortalized on the social Web, on August 7, 2006, I wrote a brief post called Hump that Hummer, outlining a new website called I humped your Hummer, where anti-Hummer "enthusiasts" expressed their thoughts about the invasion of the roadsnatchers.

Anyhoo, yesterday (January 23rd, 2008) "Nikki" posts this comment:

I own a HUMMER H2 and compared to a Toyota Prius we are angels. Toyota Prius' have killed 100 miles of forest around the mine in which their battery parts are mined. And our gas milage is no different then a Yukon, Suburban or any other similar sized vehicle. You just hate me cause I am 28 and own a $65000 vehicle! I have yet to hump a hummer but I have humped in my truck. It's great getting off on expensive leather! A civic or a corolla probably doesn't have that kind of quality eh? Plus my two children are safe and that is WHAT MATTERS! Take your little cars and drive them. But I will KEEP MINE FOREVER!!!!!!!

Classic! My best comment ever. In her brief rant, she outlines exactly why people feel the way they do about Hummers.

...but then something happens. She returns to the scene of the crime, calmer, cooler and more collected (perhaps she drove over a little old lady on her way home from soccer practice) and writes this comment:

Ok, that was a bit harsh on my end. i apologize for the mean civic comment-I had two accords myself when I was younger. But hummers get a bad wrap. We are environmentally no worse than a Yukon or similar sized suv. We are just easier to pick on because we look worse. Go after the uppity soccer moms living in the burbs. I am truly a down to earth person defensive about people who pick on our trucks. Again I apologize for the comment. Nikki

Nikki, apology accepted. In fact, let me just say that I love you. You are truly my new favorite commenter. I appreciate your passion and for the first time feel differently about Hummers and their drivers...well, at least you.

You probably stumbled upon Jaffe Juice through a typical Google search, but now that you've found it, I hope you enjoy an environment where people aren't afraid to say what they feel, even 18 months after the fact!

Why is Join the Conversation moving up the Amazon.com charts?

A. Performance of My Facebook Social Ad
B. Performance of UNM2PNM
C. The fact Amazon.com has reduced JTC to a ridiculous $13.91 It's back up to $19.77
D. Join the Conversation is a great book
E. All of the above

A. Facebook Update:

I created a new social ad to runalongside my first one. This time I included the word "Marketing" in the subject header and a few keywords in the body copy such as influencers, community, word-of-mouth and social media.

Here's the performance to date:

Generic Ad #1 (Title/subtitle of book): Impressions - 4,996; Clicks - 10
Custom Contextual Ad #2 (Marketing in header): Impressions - 4,107; Clicks - 18

B. Performance of UNM2PNM

101 requests so far with just 49 to go. Definite boost in terms of posts about participating. Still too soon for reviews en masse, however a few early ones are in.

C. Not sure what's up with that....perhaps the Algorithm needs an overhaul or perhaps Amazon is doing it's part to make sure that everyone in the business world has a copy of the book, which is awfully generous of them.

What I would recommend is that you BUY THIS BOOK NOW at this price point. Take advantage of a ridiculous fee which will allow you to buy one for yourself and pass one or two on to clients, bosses etc.

Seriously.

D. Reviews are starting to come in like this one.