April 30, 2008The final nail in the coffin of the 30-second spot? Almost 50% of American Idol viewers are over 50???
Filed Under: Proof of Life after the 30-second spot
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We're all too familiar with the ultimate contradiction in the 30-second spot game - as every year goes by, we seem to be paying more for less. It makes no sense that as viewers continue to fragment to cable, favor video production over consumption or just switch to alternatives from DVD viewing to gaming, somehow marketers are conned into continuing to invest in the cluttered swill of wastage that is continually suffocating the last bit of life in the dying field of creativity.
According to Mediaweek, viewers aged 18-49 for network syndicated spots, viewership has gone DOWN by an average of 12% and some as much as 21% over last year. That equates to about 3 million viewers on average. But Media Agencies are still trying to use scare tactics on advertisers, boasting the fact that ad spots that are not locked in already will cost 30-40% more over last year.
Hat tip: Lori-Laurent Smith
...but wait, there's less!
I opened up my USA Today in my hotel room and looked at the latest Prime Time Nielsen ratings. Last week American Idol, the network's top rated program pulled in 24.7 and 23.2 million viewers for its Tuesday and Wednesday showings respectively.
And here's the kicker: there's another box which breaks down viewers 18-49 (didn't it used to be 24-39? I'm sure these numbers would be worse) and has the same AI numbers at 11.9 and 11.3 million respectively.
In other words, 52% of American Idol viewers are 50 and older??? I'm obviously assuming that a significant chunk of this viewership is 17 and younger...but I'm curious, to what extent do Nielsen numbers cover 17 and under? Irrespective, is it even possible that such a large percentage of viewers of the most watched program are outside of the (inflated) "coveted" demographic?
And just in case you want another example of a more adult program, Desperate Housewives has 53% of its viewers outside of the 18-49 demo, Brothers & Sisters has 55% and CSI has a whopping 64%.
Where am I going wrong here? Please do correct me if I'm wrong, but if I'm not....
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Comments
I don't have access to the data, but I'll bet for American Idol, about half of the non 18-49 viewers are under 18 and the other half are 50+. As for Desperate Housewives, it wouldn't surprise me if 50% of total viewers are 50+, a wholly overlooked, undervalued, high discressionary income demo.
Posted by: John
I think you are right, the number use to and should be 18-39 and that would really change the numbers!Never occured to me.
Posted by: Leah McChesney
None of this really surprises me. And where is the coveted 18-39 male demographic? Consider this, there are 2.5 million active subscribers to WorldofWarcraft (WoW) in the US - this makes WoW the fourth largest US city. There are 10.5 million subscribers worldwide. This makes WoW the 78th largest country. Welcome to the future.
Posted by: Paul
More importantly, where would this put WoW on the most watch TELEVISION programs of the week list...or more accurately head-to-head with daytime TV i.e. daily shows?
Posted by: Joseph Jaffe
I would have to think that with 2.5MM active users, the nightly online active use base would have to be close to 500k. So what would a 500k/episode/day TV program rank?
Posted by: Paul
Great information on how viewers are preferring to watch and what are their age range these days.
George
http://www.acai.vg/acai_history.html
Posted by: Health Nut
Is broadcast tv the next newspaper? I certainly find the Am. Idol stats believable. As someone under 30, I barely watch TV at all. I am probably not the norm, but the ones who are also have DVRs.
Posted by: Len Kendall
Wait a minute... I understand your premise on the death of the 30 sec spot, but I would not assume that it should now cost less.
Indeed, over time you pay more for less. What about Addressable Advertising? Should our technologies continue the current trend whereby you are only seeing what interest you, I contend the price per eyeball will increase significantly.
The very idea that we can track viewers fragmenting supports the trend of addressable advertising. Don't let your Nielsen assumptions get in the way of recognizing change.
For a minute there I thought you were trying to suggest we continue the same ole model... Surely not.
Posted by: Gerald Smith
What's wrong in being over 50? Boomers control 60%+ of the spending in the US so reaching that market is not a bad thing. And if one is looking for websites targeted to the 50+ crowd, they are few and far between.
Posted by: Dean Harris
