Jaffe Juice

The half empty glass is half full (or is it?)

Information from a newly released study conducted by IRI and TiVo has demonstrated the inevitable: lower product sales within TiVo homes. Within the CPG category, one product saw a sales drop as large as 12%, where two other unnamed brands registered declines of 5% and 1% respectively.

First blush indicates the intuitively obvious, namely that TiVo is the Grim Reaper for TV Advertising. No question. But then again, it does also allude to the hypothesis that TV advertising works (after all, sales were higher in non-DVR homes)

Yes and No. As I wrote in Life after the 30-second spot, the question is not whether TV advertising works or not, it's how well does it work. And one thing most people will agree on nowadays is that it's not working nearly as well as it did in the past.

Ultimately, there are many variables in play that make it rather challenging to determine a one-size-fits-all conclusion at this stage. For example, the 12% brand was in a particularly price sensitive category and thus, it stands to reason that the TV advertising served a superficial purpose of blasting across a price point i.e. maximum reinforcement of a minimal proof point.

Furthermore, who's to say that the 12% wasn't already coming from an equity base which a) has been steadily declining and b) was a minority compared to the overall existing wastage.

The DVR-homes are most likely not buying any less of their daily or weekly essentials. They're just getting their information from other expanded sources, experimenting with new brands and most likely purchasing house-brands which they know are the same brands anyway minus the packaging and the premium. If they're smart enough to buy a TiVo, they're probably smart enough in terms of how they shop.

DVR-homes represent consumers that are higher up on the media-evolution chain, but it's just a matter of time before most (if not all) homes follow suit. And when that happens, those double digit percentage point drops are going to need to be made up elsewhere...

(via Ad Age)

Opening bid on insanity: $1,250

Some dumb idiot bid $1,250 on the Aqua Teen LED sign on eBay.

But will he or she tune in?

THAT'S the $1,250 question!

Linkety-Link

• Merriam-Webster released it's 2006 update which included the terms spyware, ringtone and mouse potato. Seems the first two have been around forever and should have been included ages ago...but I'm a little stumped on the third. Is this even real? Seems like this was concocted by TV people who can't figure out the net...perhaps it's because they have too much spyware on their computers????
• The inaugural golden poo award goes to Sony for 2006's best flog (alliwantforxmasisapspandafakeflogalongwitharrogantglibandpatronizingcopy) Mission Accomplished?
• Edelman under the gun again for giving away free laptops w/Windows Vista to key bloggers. BL and I share the same POV (and I suspect we're not alone): there's nothing wrong with giving away the laptops, provided a) bloggers disclose this information to their readers and  b) bloggers are allowed to express themselves freely (i.e. making room for a negative/neutral review...otherwise it's PayPerPost)
• "Brands navigate the blogosphere" from brandchannel.com. Haven't read it yet, but it looks good...
• Predictions ahoy...Wall Street Journal reports on 5 trends for 2007: 1) Fewer ads, 2) Jazzing up search, 3) "Me" Media, 4) Making a Choice, 5) New Yardsticks. 1) is common sense but I wonder how many media outlets will follow this lead; 2) how long is a piece of string? If the sum total of search innovation is "funny" one liners and mirroring TV jingles, it's time to short Google; 3) Love this i.e. the idea of brands associating themselves with influential individuals - it's a complete 180 variation on celebrity endorsement; 4) You think? Permission-based marketing rules; pre-roll commercials sucks and 5) As I often say, if you want to get the right answers, ask the right questions. The sooner we move from reach-based/potential/panel based superficial metrics to "proof of life"/actual/real reflections, we're all in a better place (except if you're traditional media that is)

Viacom's best decision of 2006?

According to paidContent.org, Me Too Tube (the Orbitz of the Video CopyCat business) might have just lost one of its founding honchos in the form of Viacom. It's all conjecture right now, but come on, do you really think a bunch of metaphorical old white guys are going to get over themselves, get out of their - and each other's - own way, park their egos at the door in the process of getting this "You Tube Killer" Hail Mary off the ground?

I think not.

Should Wendy's be charged 99c per YouTube View?

MediaPost runs a piece today talking about a threesome of Wendy's videos running on YouTube. The most popular of which is "Molly Grows Up"...

Vital Stats: (as of 6.48am on Friday 10/27)

• Length: 2m28 (or 4.93 30-second spots)
• 584,000 views
• 2 stars from 3,094 ratings
• 311 comments
• Favorited 271 times

I must admit, after reading the MediaPost article, I came expecting to hate this, but I didn't. It's hokey...but it's meant to me. Not particularly original, but brings a smile to your face nonetheless.

More importantly, it's actually not about the long-form content piece anymore and arguably it's not about Wendy's anymore...it has jumped on the viral bandwagon and now will be making its way across the blogosphere and the like.

The other 2 spots in the thread are not proving to be as popular, which suggests a concern about "scale" - iow, once is witting, twice is shitting.

Ultimately the YouTube phenomenon - with marketers scrambling to get free media and viral activation like lemmings - raises a bunch of important questions:

1. Should marketers be paying based on certain thresholds being reached (in terms of popularity)?
2. Is this scaleable? Wendy's Better Value Bureau is just another advertsing campaign...in today's day and age, the wearout factor amongst fickle consumers is incredibly short-lived
3. Will this sell bacon-cheese-bacon-cheese-bacon-cheese-whopper-mac-99c-burgers?

My PICNIC Presentation

My presentation at PICNIC (Cross Media Week) is available here.

Extra points for the first person who puts it on Google Video and YouTube :)

Tea Partay joins the million view club

Smirnoff's Raw Tea has now joined an elite club (to my knowledge they're the first): The YouTube Million View Club: 1.1 million views to be specific (and always growing)

It's the gift that keeps on giving.

It's the long tail wagging voraciously (and very early on)

Now how many bottles of raw tea are still on the wall?

Why YouTube imitators will fail

Both CBS and MTV (same connection) have and will come out respectively with their own versions of YouTube. And they certainly won't be the last. NBC has taken a rather erratic or even schitzophrenic approach, clearly demonstrating its indecisiveness or perhaps lack of (self) confidence in the space.

...but this post isn't really about criticizing MSM in anyway, but rather to isolate 10 reasons why YouTube stands alone in a very enviable category (social video):

1. YouTube began from the ground up. All imitators are looking to make exponential strides with incremental steps and tweaks. Not going to happen
2. YouTube has entered the communal consciousness - it belongs to the people and is powered by the very same constituency it serves
3. YouTube has entered and nestled into an enviable pop culture acceptance. It is to video what Google (the verb, the act, the behavior) is to Search. When you hear about a clip of interest (from Star Jones' firignation - that's a mashup between firing, indignation and resignation - to Andrew Baron talking about RocketBust or Zidane's Headbutt), there is only one place to go
4. The law of one applies. How many online auction stores do you know of? How about book stores?
5. YouTube (closely linked with point -1-) subscribes to AND, as opposed to OR. It is completely inclusive; comprehensive. It is the one-stop-shop of online video
6. The Whack-A-Mole phenomenon. Whack one mole and another pops up...and again and again and again. Sometimes 2 pop up. Bottom line, any successful attempts to control/restrict/supress consumer generated content are at best short-lived.
7. It's freebie distributed content model is the carrier pigeon meets boomerang of the social media world. It always comes back...
8. It has not become a safe haven for the fugative 30-second spot. Rather than apply traditional business models to non-traditional value propositions, YouTube is able to help its advertisers win through a) treating messaging as content, b) allowing expression through long-form content and of course c) allowing consumers to produce their own content. The entertainment industry is the lowest-hanging fruit in this regard.
9. CGC is not only allowed to sit side by side professional content, but rather is judged/evaluated accordingly and thus has the ability to rise to the top of the heap (can you DIGG it?)
10. It is self-regulated - in terms of quality and popularity, but also in terms of objectionable/questionable messaging (I'm not talking about vulturous legal eagles policing against copyright, but rather about relevance, entertainment and utility)

Those are my 10....what are yours? Do you agree that YouTube has no equal? Let me hear you roar.

Rocketboom or Rocketbust?

This post could have been called "Social Operas" as well.

This might not be as dramatic as Adam Curry leaving Podshow or perhaps Nick Denton leaving Gawker (although he has offered several staffers the opportunity to do likewise), but it's big nonetheless...

Amanda Congdon has left the building (literally). In fact, she's left the East Coast altogether.

As read on Rocketboom:

Amanda Congdon has decided to move to L.A. to pursue opportunities that have arisen for her in Hollywood.

We wanted to meet her demands to move production out to L.A., however, we are a small company and have not been able to figure out a way to make it work, financially and in many other ways at this time. While we continue to remain with open arms, Amanda has in fact quit and left Rocketboom. So sadly, we bid Amanda adieu and wish her all the best.

Rocketboom goes on.

Andrew Baron, the founder and creator of Rocketboom, will stay with the company in New York and will continue to produce and direct the show. We are in the daunting process of recruiting a replacement for Amanda.

While Amanda will be sorely missed, we have big plans for Rocketboom and are determined to make the show better than ever.

After Field Week and a week on hiatus, we know that you are hungry for the news! Rocketboom will be back with a news episode and an interim host this MONDAY, JULY 10.

And what social opera would be complete without a bit of dirty laundry being aired on Amanda's blog and via video.

...but THAT'S not half the story, THIS is. Jason Calacanis has offered her a job (or at least negotiating currency) at Netscape and he did it in full view and plain sight on his blog!

From a branding standpoint, it will be interesting to see if/how Rocketboom copes without her. It is on one hand a classic branding story (think Martha Stewart Living v Martha Stewart - not that I'm suggesting anyone's going to jail here :)) and on the other, a social media branding story (the meteoric - excuse the pun - rise of a star through a video blog!)

Also, Calacanis' move demonstrates not only social media's role in terms of elevating one's own personal stock price (getting a job), but also (and arguably more importantly) being in a position to offer a job, and thus attract talent.

Hat Tip to C.C.

Long Form Rules OOOOO.K.!

The less said here the better because if I allow what's in me to explode, I'm probably going to strike an unhealthy mix of gloating, ranting, chastising and patronizing (and other than the ranting, that's just not what I'm about)

So check it out. This Mediaweek article references a newly released report, titled "Introduction to Brand Exposure Duration" which was presented by The Atlas Institute at an ARF event in New York.

The primary findings will amaze, amuse and astound you:

The conventional wisdom regarding video ad length in new media is wrong. Longer is actually better.

That flies in the face of most of the industry's thinking, which has generally been summed up as "shorter is better" when it comes to new video distribution outlets. In fact, while many brands have been repurposing their existing 30-second TV spots for these platforms, the consensus has been that 15, 10, or even five-second ads would become the norm down the road, as advertisers work to capture the short attention spans common to these media.

Bravo to Atlas for revealing what I think was both common sense and obvious (that's not a slight on Atlas...just validation for what I wrote about in my book AND what I think most people who read Jaffe Juice already knew) And a big raspberry to the myriads of clueless so-called leaders in the interactive space.

Makes me sick to the stomach and nervous as hell when I think about those steering this ship.

Let us use this as a staunch motivator to aggressively pursue a permission-based/on-demand reality where consumers both self-select or self-target AND dictate required/optimal lenth of story to be told.