The BS Brotherhood of the Networks

Today's LA Times ran the following piece: Networks say TV ads still matter

Subhead: Executives seek to use their own research and findings from Nielsen to show that DVRs such as TiVo don't pose as big a threat as once fear. Translation: Self-serving and flawed research respectively. Let's continue...

Findings from Nielsen Media Research this fall in seven markets — including Denver, Houston and Orlando, Fla. — showed that viewers in homes with digital video recorders spent 12% more time watching television, for a total of 5.7 hours a day on average. When factoring in DVR usage, prime-time programs saw a 4% boost in their viewership.

I have seen other research which concurs that DVR consumers watch more TV than non-DVR consumers. That's because it's quality TV...it's quality content. The problem is of course, that they're not watching commercials (BIG DIFFERENCE; BIG DISTINCTION) I can buy the increase of 4% in viewership (nothing earth shattering...given the current run rate of fleeting viewers to cable, Web, DVD, Gaming etc), but I do find the 5.7 hours/day to be a little out of whack...clearly we're talking about an entire household from an aggregated standpoint, however this kind of lumped in data only goes to the problem at hand...one size fits all; mass media approach which does not segment and target accordingly.

The networks said their own research showed that more than half of DVR users paid attention to commercials and that they recalled spots they saw. The network studies also indicated something surprising: that 53% of DVR users have gone back to watch commercials they initially fast-forwarded through.

OK...this is where the bullshit meter goes wild. For starters, we have the networks conceding that about half of DVR users don't pay attention to commercials and/or recall the spots they say. Then we have a factoid which has no context, foundation, frame of reference or direction stating that 53% of DVR users may have replayed a commercial they initially fast forwarded. Come on....what's the incidence of this occurrence? Does "once ever" count as "always"? Best case scenario, we're talking about iconic, memorable and easily recognizable creative (for example, early stage iPod or Nike commercials), but until you demonstrate this being anything other than an atypical exception to the norm, stop wasting our time.

Nielsen research also showed that about 90% of the DVR users watched the shows at their designated broadcast time.

Another piece of misleading information. Does "at their designated broadcast time" mean watching CSI at 9pm or 9.20pm - in other words with just the right amount of time-shifting to eradicate commercials?

Alan Wurtzel, president of research and media development for NBC...wanted to highlight the data to debunk what he called the "urban legend" that "DVRs were going to kill the business." Wurtzel's theory is that because the earliest users of DVRs were mostly tech lovers and industry insiders, their habits were not representative of the entire population. If all Americans behaved like those who first embraced DVRs, "we'd all be wearing black, driving Jags and Mercedes and trying to get a good table at the Palm."

Huh? Since when are early adopter tech lovers (read: geek) Jag drivers? Wurtzel contradicts himself...he's saying that today's DVR user is mainstream/representative of the entire population, and yet we're still talking about 8% of the US population, which puts the diffusion/adoption of DVR's in the early adopter category. It is incongruous that a consumer purchasing a DVR would be akin to a VCR consumer with the 12:00 flashing on its LCD screen. The DVR alone may not kill the business, but it is critical to note that it is the DVR, along with the Web, DVD, VCR, PSP and good old remote control are all working together - exponentially - to give consumers unprecedented choice and viable alternatives, and in this reality TV scenario, commercials are not welcome.

Marketers and agencies - you need to ignore this self-serving, borderline egregious information and look beyond the Kumbaya brotherhood of the networks.

Networks - you need to grow up quickly and start taking responsibility for the mess - clutter, inability to target more accurately (and in your defence, along with the drivel you've had to accept in the form of "creative" advertising)

Are you part of the problem or part of the solution? Let me ask you again...are you part of the problem or part of the solution?

This press conference is a painful whinge that refuses to acknowlege a sea-change and fundamental shift in the landscape.

There are plenty of viable possibilities out there and potential solutions. Some even will lie within or through the DVR (in the book I call them, "commercials frozen in time") But in order to fully explore them, you're going to need to get off your butts and do some real work for a change, instead of fudging one-dimensional data.