The Upfront and the Super Bowl are the undisputed beacons/proxies of TV advertising's relative health. I vaguely recall predicting that the shark had been jumped for TV in 2005 (the upfront was flat) and Super Bowl XL.
However, at $2.5 or $2.6 million for a 30-second spot this year, I was proven wrong (which doesn't make me wrong, it just makes people more desperate)
Fear not, I might have been on the 'er, money after all.
This week's Ad Age (look out for the article online or purchase a copy) airs the dirty laundry that this year's XL shrunk in the wash and was in fact inbetween sizes M and L.
- The reality is that discounts ran up to 40% and a number of spots were snapped up the actual weekend of the Super Bowl.
- In addition, the family-affair of Disney and ESPN (the parent and sibling companies of ABC) accounted for 3 1/2 minutes of commercials, making them the second largest advertiser on the day.
- 5 spots (compared to 1 from last year) repurposed existing creative
The net net(work) was that the $2.5-6 tag was in fact closer to around $2.3-4, with some bargain basement pricing in the region of $1 million. That puts XL on a par with XXXIV.com
Consider the likely scenario of a Bud-less (as in less, as opposed to none) Super Bowl next year. I don't know about you, but it might be time for a couple of premature Hail Mary's from the old Network playbook...
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