Digg this if you will...
As a context setter for this post, I suggest you read this Ad Age article which reflects Yahoo's Chief Sales Officer, Wenda Harris-Millard's self-serving bearish comments on "user" generated content, as well as the del.icio.us Peanut Butter memo, calling for reduced headcount at Y! by 15-20% amidst a "radical reorganization"
I'll come back to Yahoo! shortly.
I've been mulling over this idea for a while now and thought it would be an opportune time (as all the pundits begin making their predictions for the New Year) to offer up a thought of my own: I don't think anyone doubts that there is a massive realignment of the media powers that be in the overall integrated space. Within interactive however, this couldn't be more true when you look at the rise of the "new" portals such as MySpace, YouTube and/or Google and the subsequent demise - or metamorphosis - of the "traditional" portals.
My belief is that the days of the "portal" as we knew it are coming to an end. Yahoo!'s dominance is over. AOL's opportunity is over. Perhaps only MSN has a shot left.
Let me explain...
Take a look at the 3 portals in terms of their roots/heritage:
- AOL - for all intent and purposes, a dial-up ISP for newbies
- MSN - an ISP struggling to shake the shadow and stigma of being a technology company's bastard stepchild
- Yahoo! - the one true media company
To survie...one must change; to change...one must transform; to transform...one must evolve.
- AOL today is not an ISP, but a broadband-focused media network/company, but is it too little, too late? I've always believed that AOL has the opportunity to leverage an unprecedented treasure-chest of coveted content through its Time/Warner relationship, but to date we've never seen this capitalized on. In addition, AOL continues to spew out TV-biased advertising drivel (which goes completely against everything it should be standing for) without giving its consumers an iota of a reason to care; switch; find out more; convert. AOL's post Jon Miller response has been a "frying pan into the fire" AKA The reincarnation of Lloyd Braun in the form of Randy Falco from NBC. We wish you luck in preventing history from repeating itself.
- Yahoo! is a still a media company, but is it enough anymore? The company is beyond arrogant; it has relinquished its leadership role and fallen prey to the same greed and complacency from the dot com boom/bust. As Yogi would say, it's Deja Vu all over again. Of course Wenda is going to say what she said about the powerful and authentic consumer generated content space - her comments should be discounted 100% based on her own self-serving agenda:
"The question from a business standpoint is: How do you make money at this? It's fun, it's a blast, trying to figure this out, but I don't think anyone is doing it particularly well," she said.
Actually, consumers are doing it particularly well and brands are figuring out how to work with this without having to go through you.
The peanut butter memo is accurate in many of its assertions about Yahoo!'s situation analysis. One of the most telling focuses is the division between Yahoo, the traditional wannabee media company and the (in my opinion, most promising path forward) new marketing/social media/yes-Web 2.0 path forward. The two divergent/siloed camps are clearly at odds with one another.
We end up with competing (or redundant) initiatives and synergistic opportunities living in the different silos of our company.
⢠YME vs. Musicmatch
⢠Flickr vs. Photos
⢠YMG video vs. Search video
⢠Deli.cio.us vs. myweb
⢠Messenger and plug-ins vs. Sidebar and widgets
⢠Social media vs. 360 and Groups
⢠Front page vs. YMG
⢠Global strategy from BU'vs. Global strategy from Int'l
- MSN is now the go-to role model for the entire Microsoft company, coupled with its "Live" strategy connecting the dots between every asset - from desktop software (Office etc) to gaming (Xbox!) to online (MSN) to search. Ultimately this is just a leaf out of the "Web 2.0" (Google) distributed content (RSS) strategy...
Where does this leave us?
"If you build it, will they come" is now being replaced with "if you distribute it, will they read" or perhaps this should be restated as, "If they distribute it, they will embrace it"
So back to the dissertation: What is a portal really? It's a homepage. That's it. A homepage that has "high reach" properties which decrease DRAMATICALLY with every single click beyond.
- Today's portal home page is nothing more than a clunky mash-up of other people's content. 'Er, isn't that the same as an RSS Reader/Aggregator?
- Today's portal is just a shill to flood with 30-second spots that are not welcome on television anymore
- Today's portal is not scaleable (Sold Out of linear inventory)
- Today's portal is redundant
Witness the inevitable extinction of an endangered species.
The portal as we know it today is on its way out of town. It begins with the gradual migration from My Yahoo or My AOL or My MSN to bloglines, google, vertical/targeted narrowcast mini-portals like MyAdFeed (that's what I'm using, in conjunction with bloglines) and the like.
It continues with a communal flash-mob embracing the best-in-class offering of the hour, at the expense of virtually all other substitutes. In CGC, it is YouTube. Who is number 2? Revver, Sharkle, Farkle, Barfle, who cares? Making this even worse is the fact, that we are dealing with - perhaps not fickle as Harris puts it - fluid and non-linear consumers. There are so few true barriers to entry and exit anymore, and even fewer reasons to believe and to care. As a result, consumers are "loyalless" and this does not just apply to portals, but indeed to most brands nowadays.
It ends with a democratization of content and a complete realignment and redistribution of power from the content creator (50 years ago) to the content distributor (10 years ago) to the content aggregator (today) to the content reaggregator (tomorrow - short term) and ultimately, content experiencer (tomorrow - medium term)
Short term, this will take the form of "network 2.0" (think one part Tacoda; one part Revenue Science; one part Podshow...but on a much larger and open scale) Any company that can figure out a way to eradicate the tyanny of "exclusivity", proprietary or closed-access will win.
Longer term, I feel it will contain a healthy and balanced mixture of conversation, slivercasting/long tail something and "3.d" (virtual worlds like SL) open-face access.
This is the direct-to-consumer path and its one where all the "UGC" takes over, without a care or concern about "monetization" and marketers.
Update: The peanut butter just hit the fan. Via Defamer today, "Former ABC Exec Lloyd Braun fails to make Yahoo! more like the network that previously fired him". COO Dan Rosensweig joins him.
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