Ay! Corona!

Have you ever heard of the VUCA acronym? With gratitude to Wikipedia:

VUCA is an acronym – first used in 1987, drawing on the leadership theories of Warren Bennis and Burt Nanus – to describe or to reflect on the volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity of general conditions and situations. It has subsequently taken root in emerging ideas in strategic leadership that apply in a wide range of organizations, from for-profit corporations to education. 

Well, we’re certainly living through a steaming pile of VUCA right now, with worldwide fears of COVID-19 or the virus known as Corona, continuing to wreak havoc with the global economy, much as a gale-force wind might take joy at abusing a tumbleweed.

The fragility and arguably the weak façade of what might have been called “confidence” is somewhat thrown out the window when the world order, norms, standards and practices we perceive as business as usual get turned on their heads.

Volatile? Certainly! Uncertain? Totally! Complex? Unfortunately! Ambiguous? Can you repeat the question again?

Need proof? How about the fact the S&P 500 went from a record high to a greater than 10% correction in just 6 trading days! 

The crazy thing is that this was all predicted and Dean Koontz’s 1981 book contains the evidence. Truth is stranger than fiction, right?

That’s not really what I’m talking about at all. Instead, I’m referring to the ability to imagine and realize your deepest, darkest fears AND THEN to prepare and plan for them. Dehydrated water tablets and Zombie Survival Kits aside, I’m alluding to strategic planning in an era of short-termism, risk-aversion and constant disruption. 

It isn’t really feasible or even acceptable to be caught unawares anymore. We simply have to be able to scenario and contingency plan for these “uncontrollable” moments. You might have heard me reference my son’s soccer club’s motto, “control the controllables” in the past. Our challenge of course is that we can’t even do that! When I reference digital disruption, customer obsession, talent resurrection or corporate citizenship, how many of us can truly say we’re killing it at digital, customer centricity, employee engagement and purpose? These are all controllables and they are the bridge to being able to realize and effect and meaningful for of competitive advantage and differentiation. 

I developed the survival planning canvas to make sure none of this comes as a surprise to you anymore. By looking at your competition “3D” across incumbents, challengers and incubators for example, nothing is unpredictable – or as unpredictable as before. 

The survival planning canvas anticipates Corona – perhaps not in name, but certainly (hat tip: @cliveburcham) in the recurring theme of change.

Corona is not the first external curveball and it won’t be the last, but right now, it is causing extreme damage – some fleeting but some lasting – on entire companies, industries and even countries.

Bellweathers like Apple, Marriott, Microsoft and Nike are warning now about missed earnings. The list is long and growing. Entire conferences and festivals like Mobile World Congress have been scrapped. So it’s not hard to see how any company or industry that has its equity in China and/or the travel and tourism space – either directly or indirectly – are feeling differing amounts of real pain.

And spare a thought for the beer brand, cursed with the same name!

And then there’s the cruise line industry. Sorry to pick on one in particular, but this is a beleaguered business that continues to be plagued (sorry about the pun) by negative publicity and horror story after horror story: most recently the Corona-haven, Diamond Princess. Robotic bartenders might have seemed like a gimmick at the time, but ironically might be the only way of getting a drink when the real bartender is under quarantine. 

Has this industry evolved enough? Have they innovated quickly enough? Why do they seem to find themselves in the eye of the storm on a regular basis? 

To be sure, there will be opportunities. Like Purell for example. Or even the home connected fitness business, but these are short term bumps that over time don’t make a dent on the sands of time and forces of change. 

So if you are a company feeling the pressure right now, you are not alone. Take solace in that, but at the same time, the sooner you come to terms with the fact this is business as usual now, the quicker you will be able to react or “proact”, adapt, evolve and ultimately transform.

Here’s a free friendly tip: stay away from Twitter and your real-time witty tweets. Instead, focus on a new kind of brand safety. Take “brand protection precautions” that earn the right to survive each and every day. Complete your Survival Planning Canvas. Embrace your heresy. Prepare a growth plan that has its foundations in VUCA. Live every day as if it was your last. That’s the new cost of doing business. That’s the new currency of success. That’s what it takes to win in a world where Corona is sadly not a beer consumed at your leisure on a tropical island.